Catenary

Entries from September 2008

Economic measurement

September 24, 2008 · 2 Comments

I just finished reading Fritz Schumacher’s “Small is Beautiful”, and it reminded me of a speech by Robert F. Kennedy that I wanted to share:

Too much and for too long, we seem to have surrendered personal excellence and community values in the mere accumulation of material things. Our Gross National Product, now, is over eight hundred billion dollars a year, but that GNP — if we should judge the United States of America by that — counts air pollution and cigarette advertising and ambulances to clear our highways of carnage. It counts special locks for our doors and the jails for the people who break them. It counts the destruction of our redwoods and the loss of our natural wonder in chaotic sprawl. It counts napalm and it counts nuclear warheads, and armored cars for police who fight riots in our streets. It counts Whitman’s rifle and Speck’s knife, and the television programs which glorify violence in order to sell toys to our children.

Yet the Gross National Product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education, or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials. It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country; it measures everything, in short, except that which makes life worthwhile. And it can tell us everything about America except why we are proud that we are Americans.

Categories: Activism · Books

Standish, the CHAOS report, and science

September 24, 2008 · 4 Comments

Every software engineering researcher has heard of the 1994 CHAOS report from the Standish Group. It reported that the large majority of software projects fail, and that they incur in an average of 189% cost overrun. It’s a very popular report –the go-to reference for researchers that want to make the case that the software industry is in crisis and is therefore desperately in need of whatever tool or method we throw their way.

I suspect, however, that most software engineering researchers haven’t read it. If they had they wouldn’t be citing it: as a piece of science it is terrible. Its methods are not fully disclosed, and the bits that are disclosed are deeply flawed. Its results are completely unreliable. There are good critiques of the report out there, notably by Robert Glass and by Jørgensen and Moløkken, that point to the unreliability of the study and question the claim of a software crisis.

All this is old news, but yesterday I stumbled upon this gem: In the comments section of this InfoQ interview with Standish’s Jim Johnson, Magne Jorgensen brought up his critique of the CHAOS report and asked two very fair questions. Johnson’s reply is almost unbelievable (emphasis mine):

General answer to Magne Jørgensen, Robert Glass, et al. We are an advisory research firm much like a Gartner or Forrester. What sets us apart from them is that we use our primary research to form our opinions, whereas they use their individual consultants. Neither they nor we can afford to give our opinions away for free. We have facilities, utilities, and personnel and we must, the same as you, be able to pay our bills. Just because someone asks a question, does not mean we will respond with an answer. In fact, we most likely will not. It is not rebuff or slight, it is just our business model to survive. Our current standard answer to a CHAOS inquiry is, first: please purchase our new book, ”My Life is Failure” in our online store. If that does not satisfy you, then you need to join CHAOS University. If you do not find your answer or answers there then you need to purchase our inquiry services. Then we will work to answer your questions. Besides being a client you can get CHAOS information by participating in the research forum. If you would like to participant in our research you canjoin the Standish User Research Forum. You need to be an organization that develops software for your own use to qualify. This year we are offering a free reviewers copy of a book we just completed titled “The Pubic Execution of Miss Scarlet” as the honorarium. It is a tale of a fictional project in peril, but uses much of our lessons learned. Every year since 1995 we hold a CHAOS University and discuss many of these issue. It is strange that both Jørgensen and Glass have never applied or professed interest in joining us. Some answers can be found if you join us at CHAOS University 2007 or one of the many outreach events. So you can contribute to the CHAOS research by providing funding or sweat, but short of that you will and must be ignored by design. We do provide much of our research to the legitimate press and I have personally written many articles on our CHAOS and other research. We have given many talks to public and private organizations. In June, I presented some of our research to an IEEE conference in Philadelphia and the Delivering Project Excellence conference in Phoenix. This month I am doing a keynote talk to the National Association for Justice Information Systems in Boca Raton, Florida. As to Jørgensen’s two questions:Question 2: How was (and is) the cost overrun in the report calculated? The simple answer to this is that we ask“what was the estimated cost verses the actual cost?” We use a number of different instruments to collect the data and derive our overrun assessment. While we really do have a rocket scientist on staff, this is basic math. On the first question and any other questions you will have to read “My Life is Failure” to find those answers.

Really? Purchase our book and our inquiry services? Join our “university”? It’s clear that the CHAOS report is a business, not science. We must stop treating it otherwise, and we must call out those who do not.

Categories: Academia · Software development
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The morality of a flat rate tax

September 13, 2008 · 30 Comments

Politics are a bit raw in the US these days, and while I spent the summer in Seattle I got into a few discussions about the current campaigns and public policy in general. 

One of the most unexpected positions I found was that of people being in favour of a flat rate tax. Twice I heard people independently defending flat taxes –one rather superficially, because he believed that a flat tax “should be enough” to cover the needs of society, and the other as a matter of principle and fairness. That’s the one that caught my attention: I’ve heard the arguments based on the simplication of the tax code and on the generation of wealth through flat taxation, but never that flat rates were morally defensible.

The argument goes as follows: The income an individual receives is a reward for the value that such individual adds to society. The market determines the value of each good and service; since trivial needs are easily satisfied, they are not as highly valued. Therefore, the more we contribute to satisfy society’s needs, the more money we earn. And, roughly, the more effort we apply to fulfill society’s needs, the more value we provide.

Therefore, we all earn our wealth rightfully (as long as it was legal), and it is unfair for the rich to be taxed at a higher proportion than the poor, since their wealth is simply a manifestation of the greater value they have provided to society. A progressive tax rate takes money away from the most productive and helpful citizens, and gives it to the least productive and helpful, which is an injustice to put it mildly.

(To be sure, this argument should conclude with a proposal not for a flat rate tax, but for a flat fee tax, where the government charges the same minimal fee to all its citizens and gets out of their way, like a club membership. But I have yet to hear anybody advocating the morality of a flat fee tax with a straight face.)

Now, the friend that gave me this argument is well-meaning, principled, and not particularly rich. For him, it is not simply an excuse to support selfish tax policies, it’s a consequence of a sincere belief in the free market system. I guess many compassionate, well-to-do people think similarly when faced with the deep inequalities in our economic system. But it’s a naive and erroneous argument, for two reasons.

First, it is false that the money exchanged in a transaction is generally a good approximation of the value provided to society by the transaction. Sometimes it is a good approximation of the value provided to the payer, but inconsequential or detrimental to the payer’s community (for instance, arms trading and stock exchange speculation). Sometimes the value provided to society is impossible to assess at the time of the transaction (as with scientific research). Sometimes the value is far higher than the money exchanged, because the benefitting party is disadvantaged and cannot pay an amount corresponding to the benefit received (for example, most volunteer work). It is then wrong to reason that the value provided to society equals the wealth earned in the process.

Second, it is false that the effort one exerts optimally corresponds to the benefit one will provide to society. We do not have a level playing field: poor citizens have by definition less capital than rich citizens, and hence less leverage to provide greater value to society with the same amount of effort.

So, effort exerted does not correspond to value provided to society, and value provided to society does not correspond to personal wealth. We simply cannot assume that the rich among us have provided greater value to society, or that they have made greater sacrifices for it. We can see, however, the ethical case for using superfluous capital to address society’s ills, through taxing proportionally more those with proportionally fewer needs.

Categories: Activism
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TIFF: Shakespeare and Victor Hugo’s Intimacies

September 11, 2008 · Leave a Comment

Yesterday we went to see Intimidades de Shakespeare y Victor Hugo”, a very personal Mexican documentary by Yulene Olaizola, at the Toronto International Film Festival. It’s a fantastic film, a beautifully constructed exposition of a delicate, twisting story. (Nothing to do with Shakespeare or Victor Hugo though, the title refers to an intersection in Mexico City.) There will be another screening tomorrow, Friday Sept 12, at 2:45pm, so check it out if you can.

Categories: Mexico · Off Topic · Recommendations
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How I spent my summer

September 7, 2008 · 3 Comments

Throughout the 12 weeks of my summer internship, I was keeping a time log of my project-related activities. Here’s the resulting chart:

A few notes to explain the chart:

  • My project was a field study, other research internships would have very different hours and kinds of activities depending on their nature.
  • I spent an average of slightly more than 40 hours/week in the office. 1, 3, and 7 were 4-day weeks, 9 was a 6-day week, and 11 and 12 were crunch-mode weeks.
  • With the exception of “Talks”, I only logged strictly my real work time — not the time I spent staying on top of things (reading and answering emails, catching up with blogs), taking a break, working on non-project stuff, etc. I can usually keep a pace of 40-hour weeks with 22-25 hours of real work per week without burning out (and if you think that’s too little you should start timing yourself). The last couple of weeks were a bit intense as I rushed to finish a paper and deliver a presentation, and as a result I’m now overcooked, though not burnt out. A few days off will get me back on track.
  • “Connect” represents meeting people to get access to their teams, or to get feedback on our plans.
  • There were a few hours of planning and a lot of reading before I started the project, so they’re underrepresented here.
  • Whenever I had to choose between logging an activity as “Collect” (data collection) or as “Analyze” (sometimes the distinction was blurry), I chose “Collect”. So “Analyze” is also a bit underrepresented.
With those caveats, the chart can give you a basic idea of how a research internship project looks like.

Categories: Academia
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It’s certainly four more than Cheney…

September 6, 2008 · Leave a Comment

From the latest Wonderella:

 

Wonderella for Vicepresident

Wonderella for Vicepresident

Categories: Off Topic

I’m back! And I’m going back!

September 5, 2008 · Leave a Comment

Well I’ve been away from my blog for too long –as my internship got more involved I had more stuff to share and less time to do it. I’m officially done with my internship today, though. It was a great experience, and I have lots to write about. Until soon!

Categories: Off Topic